Lahore School of Economics

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Lahore School of Economics macro model for the Pakistan

The model predicts that GDP growth over the fiscal year July 2022 – June 23, (FY2023), will be 0.82 percent. This projection for the annual growth rate of GDP for FY2023, has been weakened by two quarters of falling GDP growth.

Inflation for FY 2023 is estimated by our model at 26.1%. This is year on year, for FY 2023, compared to FY 2022.

The supply shock of the floods in Q1 of FY2023, has been succeeded by another supply shock in Q2. This is the government policies to reduce imports which has constrained manufacturing. The model estimates that a 20% drop in imports may reduce industrial value added by almost 10%.

Read the paper here (pdf)

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posted by S A J Shirazi @ 2/27/2023 03:51:00 PM,

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