Global Energy Price Shock Weighs Heavily on Pakistan’s Economy, Lahore School of Economics Report
June 30, 2026
Pakistan’s economy is facing mounting pressure from a prolonged global energy price shock that has slowed economic growth, accelerated inflation, widened external imbalances, and increased poverty, according to a new quarterly report released by the Modelling Lab of the Innovation and Technology Centre at the Lahore School of Economics.
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Economic Growth, Growth, Inflation, Innovation and Technology Center, Lahore School, Pakistan, Pakistan Economy, Research
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 6/30/2026 09:22:00 AM,
Economy struggling under weight of global energy shock: report
June 29, 2026
Pakistan’s economy is struggling under the weight of a global energy shock that has dampened growth, stoked inflation, and strained the country’s external accounts, according to a quarterly report prepared by the Modelling Lab of the Innovation and Technology Centre at the Lahore School of Economics.
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Economic Growth, Growth, Inflation, Innovation and Technology Center, Lahore School, Pakistan, Pakistan Economy, Research
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 6/29/2026 09:25:00 AM,
Growth dips to 3.1% on energy shock
June 27, 2026
Pakistan's economic growth stands at 3.1% this fiscal year, but a brutal global energy shock is threatening to drag that figure down further, with millions of the country's poorest citizens already paying the price.
That is the central finding of the Lahore School of Economics' latest quarterly assessment for Financial Year 2025-26, released by its Modelling Lab. The report, authored by economists Dr Moazam Mahmood and Dr Azam Amjad Chaudhry, paints a sobering picture of an economy caught between fragile recovery and external pressure it cannot control.Read more »
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Economic Growth, Growth, Inflation, Innovation and Technology Center, Lahore School, Pakistan, Pakistan Economy, Research
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 6/27/2026 01:25:00 PM,
State of the Pakistan Economy, Growth, Inflation and Welfare in Pakistan
June 25, 2026
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Economic Growth, Growth, Inflation, Innovation and Technology Center, Lahore School, Pakistan, Pakistan Economy, Research
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 6/25/2026 03:15:00 PM,
Policy risks eat into export revenue
June 16, 2026
Pakistan is losing hundreds of millions of dollars in export revenue every month, not because of foreign tariff wars or global trade conflicts, but because of the uncertainty generated by its own policymaking machinery, according to a new study released by economists Azam Chaudhry and Gul Andaman of the Lahore School of Economics (LSE).
Labels: China, Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Export, Exports, Finance Act, Lahore School, Pakistan, Pakistan Economy, Research, Revenue, Trade, US
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 6/16/2026 09:29:00 AM,
Lahore School of Economics projects 2.4pc GDP growth for FY2025-26
November 24, 2025
The Modeling Lab at the Lahore School of Economics has released its annual GDP growth estimates for Pakistan’s fiscal year 2025-26, projecting a modest growth rate of 2.4 percent based on macroeconomic variables observed during the first quarter from July to September. This figure represents no improvement from the previous fiscal year 2024-25, which also recorded a growth rate of 2.4 percent.
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Economic Growth, Growth, Inflation, Innovation and Technology Center, Lahore School, Pakistan, Pakistan Economy
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 11/24/2025 09:17:00 AM,
State of the Pakistan Economy, Growth, & Inflation in Pakistan
November 19, 2025
Dr. Moazam Mahmood, Professor, Faculty of Economics
Dr. Azam Amjad Chaudhry, Professor & Dean, Faculty of Economics
Amna Noor Fatima, Manager, Data Analyst, Modeling Lab
Seemab Sajid, Data Analyst, Modeling Lab
Anoosha Liaqat, Data Analyst, Modeling Lab
Syeda Khadijah Batool, Data Analyst, Modeling Lab
Click here to read
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Economic Growth, Growth, Inflation, Innovation and Technology Center, Lahore School, Pakistan, Pakistan Economy
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 11/19/2025 10:15:00 AM,
Exports stagnant despite rupee fall
November 16, 2025
For years, Pakistan has relied on traditional levers like currency depreciation and energy subsidies to stimulate exports. Yet despite multiple rounds of rupee devaluation, the country's export earnings have largely stagnated.
According to an empirical analysis by the Lahore School of Economics, it is not price adjustments but innovation, diversification, and access to high-income markets that truly drive export growth.
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Exports, Pakistan, Pakistan Export, Research, Trade Policy, WTO, WTO Chairs
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 11/16/2025 01:50:00 PM,
Factors that Impact Pakistan's Exports: An Empirical Analysis
November 15, 2025
Dr. Azam Amjad Chaudhry, Professor and Dean, Faculty of Economics, Lahore School of Economics, WTO Chair for Pakistan
Dr. Gul Andaman, Teaching and Research Fellow, Innovation and Technology Center, Lahore School of Economics
Despite multiple currency depreciations, exports have barely grown. Research by Dr. Azam Amjad Chaudhry (Professor & Dean, Faculty of Economics, WTO Chair for Pakistan) and Dr. Gul Andaman (Teaching & Research Fellow, Innovation and Technology Center, Lahore School of Economics) shows that it’s not prices but diversification, innovation, and global demand that truly drive export growth. To move forward, Pakistan must build capabilities, add value, and expand into high-tech, complex products — not just rely on exchange rates.
Read Lahore School, Innovation and Technology Center, Policy Note No. 2/25 here
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Exports, Pakistan, Pakistan Export, Research, Trade Policy, WTO, WTO Chairs
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 11/15/2025 04:14:00 PM,
Bridging Research and Policy for Impactful Development
August 29, 2025
Labels: Civil Services Academy, Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Evidence Based Policy, Faculty, Higher Education, Lahore School, Pakistan, Research
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 8/29/2025 02:45:00 PM,
Trade may be diverted in Pakistan’s favour due to tariffs on BD, Vietnam, China
April 11, 2025
Pakistani economists warn that the newly imposed US tariffs could have a significant impact on Islamabad’s exports. Initially, the effects might be relatively contained, but if the tariffs persist, they could lead to a more substantial decline in exports over time. This potential downturn is attributed to the tariffs’ influence on Pakistan’s trade balance and overall economic performance.
According to a Lahore School of Economics policy paper written by Dr Azam Amjad Chaudhry, Professor and Dean, Faculty of Economics, and Dr Gul Andaman, Teaching and Research Fellow, Innovation and Technology Center, with Bangladesh, Vietnam, and China facing even higher tariffs, there may be some trade diversions in Pakistan’s favour. Moreover, US buyers might negotiate for Pakistani exporters to absorb part of the tariff, further softening the blow to the country’s exports to the US.
Read more »Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Economy, Export, Global Economy, Import, Lahore School, Pakistan, Research, Tariffs, Trade Division, US
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 4/11/2025 09:11:00 AM,
US tariffs can cost Pakistan $4.2b in 5 years
April 10, 2025
The United States' recent decision to impose a 39% tariff on imports from Pakistan could lead to a significant drop in Pakistan's export revenues, with estimates suggesting a potential decline of up to $0.8 billion in calendar year 2024 alone.
As per a policy note released by the Lahore School of Economics (Lahore School) on Wednesday, over the next five years, this loss could accumulate to as much as $4.22 billion if the full burden of the tariff is passed on to American consumers. However, the actual impact might be less severe if Pakistani exporters absorb part of the tariff cost or negotiate with US buyers to share the burden.
Read more »Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Economy, Export, Global Economy, Import, Lahore School, Pakistan, Research, Tariffs, Trade Division, US
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 4/10/2025 12:03:00 PM,
Essential Economic Insights for Public Policy in Pakistan
January 27, 2025
Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Pro-Rector Lahore School of Economics was a guest lecturer at the National School of Public Policy (Pakistan), for its 122nd National Management Course. Dr. Azam Chaudhry's lecture “Essential Insights of Economics for Public Policy Formulation and Implementation in Pakistan,” focused on:
Elasticity: This concept measures how responsive demand for a product is to changes in its price, which is vital for understanding the effects of currency depreciation on exports and imports in Pakistan.
Economic Constraints: The lecture discussed how low export growth and the quality of exports can lead to repeated economic slowdowns, impacting overall GDP growth.
Evidence-Based Policymaking: Dr. Chaudhry highlighted the importance of using data from actual economic events to assess the impact of policies, such as the effects of trade tariffs on exports.
These concepts are crucial for shaping effective public policies that can enhance trade, stimulate GDP growth, and address the structural issues within Pakistan's economy, particularly in light of challenges like the balance of payments crisis.
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, National School of Public Policy, Pakistan, Public Policy, WTO, WTO Chairs
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 1/27/2025 12:18:00 PM,
Lahore School of Economics and WTO Host Seminar on Trade Models and Economic Growth
December 04, 2024
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Economic Growth, EU, Pakistan, Trade Policy, WTO, WTO Chairs
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 12/04/2024 09:50:00 AM,
Navigating the Complexities of Policy Advice
September 05, 2024
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Pakistan, Public Policy, Trade
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 9/05/2024 02:50:00 PM,
Unpacking Pakistan's Economic Challenges
September 02, 2024
Key topics included the impact of trade tariffs, price elasticity of demand, and technological advancements on Pakistan's economy. The lecture emphasized the balance of payments constrained growth, highlighting how structural issues in the export and import sectors limit Pakistan's economic expansion beyond a certain threshold. This balance of payments dilemma, exacerbated by a narrow export base and inelastic import demands, leads to unsustainable growth as imports rise disproportionately compared to exports when GDP growth accelerates.
Read more »Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Pakistan Economy, WTO
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 9/02/2024 03:50:00 PM,
GDP Growth, Inflation, and Welfare for FY 2023-24, and the Budget for FY 2024-25
August 03, 2024
The Lahore School of Economics macro model for the Pakistan economy estimates that GDP growth over the fiscal year FY 2023-2024 (Jul-Jun) has been 1.68%. This low estimate of GDP growth for FY 2023-2024, is based on a sustained weakness in sectoral growth over the first quarter (Q1), especially in large scale manufacturing, which has barely broken even, from the contraction of the previous year FY 2022-2023 of - 2.9%, compounded by a weak, below trend growth, recovery in agriculture. Our model projects that GDP growth accordingly should rise to 3.3% for FY 2024-25.
So, a flatline estimation for the annual growth rate of GDP for FY 2022-2023, has been succeeded, by a very weak GDP growth for FY 2023-2024 of 1.68%. Comparable to GOP’s estimate of GDP growth for FY 2023- 2024 of 2.4%. The IMF has a slightly higher estimate, compared to ours, for FY 2023-2024 of 2.0%. The Asian Development Bank and the World Bank have smidge higher estimates, compared to ours, for FY 2023- 2024 of 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively.
Labels: Budget, Dr. Azam Chaudhry, GDP, Growth, Inflation, Lahore School, Pakistan, Pakistan Economy, Research
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 8/03/2024 08:56:00 AM,
Measuring process innovation outputs and understanding their implications for firms and workers: Evidence from Pakistan
August 01, 2024
This study proposes and constructs five quantitative metrics of process innovation output and delves into the factors influencing firms' decision to engage in process innovation and their success in achieving innovation outputs.
Main inducers: Breadth and depth of innovative capabilities; knowledge network embeddedness; extent and nature of competition.
Returns: Engaging in process innovation leads to immediate economic returns, boosting labor productivity and facilitating business expansion.
Adopting new processes leads to automation, but the study does not find evidence that new processes led to lower employment.
Access the full article by Dr. Waqar Wadho and Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Lahore School of Economics here.
Labels: apparel, Cost-reduction, Developing countries, Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Innovation, Labor productivity, Lahore School, Pakistan, Process innovation, Technology, Textiles
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 8/01/2024 10:03:00 AM,
Annual WTO Chairs' Conference
June 27, 2024
Labels: Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Research, WTO
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 6/27/2024 04:21:00 PM,
Measuring process innovation outputs and understanding their implications for firms and workers: Evidence from Pakistan
June 23, 2024
Abstract
New processes significantly affect firms and workers; however, due to a lack of quantitative indicators, our understanding of the measures, determinants, and impacts of new processes remains limited. Drawing on unique data from Pakistan, we analyzed five different measures of process innovation output: cost reductions, defect rate reductions, reductions in production cycle time, increases in production capacity, and improvement in product quality. We find that the breadth and depth of innovative capabilities, level of competition, and availability of market sources of knowledge are important inducers of process innovation and that smaller firms are more likely to introduce new processes and are better able to transform them into higher output. All five process innovation outputs are associated with higher labor productivity and higher sales. We do not find that adopting new processes led to labor displacement; however, there is suggestive evidence that new processes led to the increased employment of skilled workers.
JEL Classification: O31, O32, O33, J23, J24
Read here
Labels: Cost-reduction, Developing countries, Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Innovation, Labor productivity, Pakistan, Process innovation, Technology, Textiles & Apparel
posted by S A J Shirazi @ 6/23/2024 12:56:00 PM,
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