Lahore School of Economics

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Policy risks eat into export revenue
June 16, 2026

Shielding exporters from year-to-year tax changes can help stave off losses

Sharam Haq

Pakistan is losing hundreds of millions of dollars in export revenue every month, not because of foreign tariff wars or global trade conflicts, but because of the uncertainty generated by its own policymaking machinery, according to a new study released by economists Azam Chaudhry and Gul Andaman of the Lahore School of Economics (LSE).


The headline finding is striking. When the United States and China fought a bruising tariff war in 2018 and 2019, an episode that reshuffled global supply chains and rattled exporters worldwide, Pakistan's trade policy uncertainty index peaked at 185, against a baseline of 100. But Pakistan's own Finance Act of 2024, a routine annual budget law, pushed that same index to 348, nearly twice the level recorded during the biggest trade conflict in a generation. By 2025, the index had reached three and a half times its historical mean.
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posted by S A J Shirazi @ 6/16/2026 09:29:00 AM,

Trade may be diverted in Pakistan’s favour due to tariffs on BD, Vietnam, China
April 11, 2025

This potential downturn is attributed to tariffs’ influence on Pakistan’s trade balance and overall economic performance

Mehtab Haider

Pakistani economists warn that the newly imposed US tariffs could have a significant impact on Islamabad’s exports. Initially, the effects might be relatively contained, but if the tariffs persist, they could lead to a more substantial decline in exports over time. This potential downturn is attributed to the tariffs’ influence on Pakistan’s trade balance and overall economic performance.

According to a Lahore School of Economics policy paper written by Dr Azam Amjad Chaudhry, Professor and Dean, Faculty of Economics, and Dr Gul Andaman, Teaching and Research Fellow, Innovation and Technology Center, with Bangladesh, Vietnam, and China facing even higher tariffs, there may be some trade diversions in Pakistan’s favour. Moreover, US buyers might negotiate for Pakistani exporters to absorb part of the tariff, further softening the blow to the country’s exports to the US.

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posted by S A J Shirazi @ 4/11/2025 09:11:00 AM,

US tariffs can cost Pakistan $4.2b in 5 years
April 10, 2025

Lahore School of Economics warns of heavy long-term losses, potential decline of $0.8b this year but sees potential trade diversion

Shahram Haq

The United States' recent decision to impose a 39% tariff on imports from Pakistan could lead to a significant drop in Pakistan's export revenues, with estimates suggesting a potential decline of up to $0.8 billion in calendar year 2024 alone.

As per a policy note released by the Lahore School of Economics (Lahore School) on Wednesday, over the next five years, this loss could accumulate to as much as $4.22 billion if the full burden of the tariff is passed on to American consumers. However, the actual impact might be less severe if Pakistani exporters absorb part of the tariff cost or negotiate with US buyers to share the burden.

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posted by S A J Shirazi @ 4/10/2025 12:03:00 PM,

Lahore School of Economics & SCCI Boosting Pakistan's Dental Exports to the US
December 04, 2024

The Lahore School of Economics, in collaboration with the Sialkot Chamber of Commerce and Industry, has launched an exciting new project aimed at expanding dental exports to the U.S. This pilot initiative, titled Expanding Horizon: Dental Export Opportunities, encourages local dental firms to develop specialized products for the U.S. market.


At the launch event, members of the Lahore School of Economics research team - Dr. Azam Chaudhry, Ms. Shamyla Chaudry, and Fahad Irfan - presented an overview of the project.

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posted by S A J Shirazi @ 12/04/2024 09:50:00 AM,

Lahore School of Economics Partners with Sialkot Chamber to Drive Export Growth
October 17, 2024


A team from the Lahore School of Economics, including Dr. Azam Chaudhry (Pro-Rector and Dean of the Faculty of Economics and WTO Chair for Pakistan), Ms. Shamyla Chaudry, and Fahad Irfan, visited Sialkot to meet with Mr. Ikram Ul Haq, President of the Sialkot Chamber of Commerce. The meeting focused on exploring export opportunities in the region, particularly in the surgical goods sector and other export sectors in Sialkot, as well as the initiatives undertaken by the WTO Chair for Pakistan. The Lahore School team introduced their new project aimed at promoting innovation and boosting exports in Sialkot. The Chamber responded extremely positively, expressing a shared vision of driving product innovation, research, and export growth to support local businesses.

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posted by S A J Shirazi @ 10/17/2024 12:42:00 PM,

Soccer ball production faces serious challenges over production cost, quality
September 09, 2016

Pakistan’s soccer ball production is facing serious challenges like increasing production cost and quality issue because of the soccer industry’s workers resistance to new technology, reveals a survey by Lahore School of Economics.


All of Pakistan’s soccer ball production is concentrated in Sialkot, which remains the major source for the world’s hand stitched soccer balls. In recent years the industry has faced increasing competition from East Asian countries, especially China, which has hurt exporters.
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posted by S A J Shirazi @ 9/09/2016 02:04:00 PM,

Study finds govt’s focus on exporters rightly placed

Developing countries have sought to promote exports as a growth strategy since they are both – a source of higher demand and of coveted foreign exchange. Proponents of trade liberalisation argue that there is a positive relationship between openness of economy and productivity of its firms.


A research conducted by the Lahore School of Economics suggests that this works through the introduction of imports that increases competition and lowers the average cost of production due to the exit of low-productivity firms.
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posted by S A J Shirazi @ 9/09/2016 01:28:00 PM,

Exporters in Pakistan and Firms Who Do Not Export: What’s the Big Difference?
May 14, 2015

In a recent paper published in the Lahore Journal of Economics titled ‘Exporters in Pakistan and Firms Who Do Not Export: What’s the Big Difference?’ Dr. Theresa Chaudhry (of the Lahore School of Economics) and Muhammad Haseeb took a novel look at the critical issue of Pakistani exports.

The authors used two cross-sections of firm-level data — the Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2000/01 for Punjab and the World Bank Enterprise Survey data set (2006/07) for all Pakistan to look at the characteristics of exporting firms. The authors found similar levels of export market participation but very large shares of export sales in firm revenue for those who do, compared to the US sample. The authors also found, as do many other studies, that exporters exhibited significantly higher total factor productivity (TFP) and are larger in terms of employment than non-exporters. Considering the eight largest sectors (which comprise more than 80 percent of the CMI Punjab), with a few exceptions, exporters had higher labor productivity and offered higher compensation to workers, but used more capital per worker and more imported inputs.
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posted by S A J Shirazi @ 5/14/2015 10:00:00 AM,

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